The plan above rests on an activation rate that nobody has observed. The reasoning "thirty retained accounts needs roughly three hundred connects" comes from a rate we assumed, not one we measured, and it is doing a lot of work — it is why the directory listings look sufficient and why the launch looks skippable.
Marking it here is the point. When the first real numbers arrive, this is the note they update, and the plan around it should move rather than being defended.
The kill criterion, decided in advance so it cannot be negotiated later: a hundred connects producing fewer than ten second-week capturing accounts means the problem is the trigger, not distribution. The correct response is to stop marketing entirely and go back to the product. The incorrect response — the one that requires a pre-committed rule to resist, because in the moment it always feels like the diligent option — is to buy more reach on the theory that the sample was too small.